Report: Degrees Will Still Matter in the Workplace of Tomorrow

There’s a movement afoot to relax (or altogether remove) bachelor’s degree requirements for many state government jobs.

As the Brookings Institute recently noted, the past two years have seen more than 20 states expanding access to jobs in their state by assessing or eliminating bachelor’s degree requirements.

“Government leaders see removing bachelor’s degree requirements as critical to meeting their hiring needs and public service delivery obligations,” according to the Washington, D.C.-based public policy organization. “And, at a time when states are struggling to fill a high number of open roles, removing these requirements can attract a larger pool of talent.”

This trend indicates that the public sector is doing its part to create more professional opportunities for workers without advanced degrees. But new research suggests that those with higher levels of education and training will still have a leg up in the broader employment market of the future.

The new report from Georgetown University’s Center on Education and the Workforce (CEW) found that, “while there will be good jobs on every educational pathway in 2031, only 15% will be available to workers on the high school pathway, compared to 66% on the bachelor’s degree pathway and 19% on the middle-skills pathway.”

The Future of Good Jobs: Projections through 2031 report is based on CEW’s projections of all jobs, and forecasts the share and number of good jobs in 2031 for workers between the ages of 25 and 64 by 22 occupational groups and three educational pathways—bachelor’s degrees, middle skills and high school, according to the CEW.

Researchers defined a “good job” as one that pays, nationally, a minimum of $43,000 to workers between the ages of 25 and 44, a minimum of $55,000 to those aged 45 to 64, and a median of $82,000 for all good jobs. Overall, the report found that 85% of good jobs will go to workers with some form of postsecondary education or training by 2031.

“We are going through a time of major economic change that carries both promise and uncertainty, including retirements of baby boomers, potential disruptions from generative AI, remaining inflationary pressures and high interest rates, geopolitical conflicts and an unsettled national policy landscape,” CEW Director and study lead author Jeff Strohl said in a statement.

“The good news, though, is we foresee substantially more good jobs by 2031, spurred by greater productivity enabled by new technologies, stronger growth among high-skill/high-wage occupations and continued political pressure on policymakers to deliver on job quality for workers, not just low unemployment.”